News Main Page

News Jan-Jun 2009        
         

copyright ACF 2009

Date
News (Jul-Dec 2009)
Subject
     
31 /12/2009

135 The NY Times reported on the hiring of a senior former US Treasury employee by PIMCO, apparently to take advantage of his government inside knowledge and connections.   Link to article

ethics

     
30 /12/2009

134 The WS Jnl reported on the problem facing EU countries (high debt vs GDP and their relative cost of debt vs Bunds) and its continuation in 2010.   Link to article

EU govt debt

economy

     
30 /12/2009

133 The WS Jnl reported Korea's falling imports will continue to generate a current acct surplus, thereby stimulating an appreciation of the Won.   Link to article

current account

currency

     
29/12/2009

133 The NY Times reported Morgan Stanley is to be sued for misleading an investor in a CDO it sold, and shorted, i.e., had bet it would fail, which it did.  See also News 23 Dec 09   Link to article

moral hazard

CDO

     
28/12/2009

132 The NY Times reported the Fed is considering ofering banks CDs to tie-up banks' cash reserves and thereby prevent inflation risk caused by too much bank funds being used to provide credit   Link to article

inflation

bank reserves

     
28/12/2009

131 The Times reported PE group that owns Brit Car Auctions, has sold it to another PE group.  Interestingly, all other bidders were PE groups. Perhaps this supports the views expressed in 6 Oct News  that PE groups churn deals to get their fees and not to create economic value for their investors   Link to article

private equity

fees

PE

     
27/12/2009

130a The Times lists wealthy british eco-entrepreneurs rich list .  Link to article

entrepreneurs

     
27/12/2009

130 The NY Times reported China has said it will not appreciate its Yuan, and will continue to peg it to the USD (which it did from mid-2008). It has therefore depreciated vs currencies of its trading partners.  China claimed tariffs on its exports and external pressure to appreciate its currency, were measures aimed at containing China's strong economic development.  The US has said China's currency policy might amount to a subsidy of its exports and so justify the use of import tariffs on China's exports.   Link to article

currency peg

tarriffs

exports

     
26/12/2009

129b The Times summarised countries' defining news in 2009.   Link to article

economies

     
26/12/2009

129a The NY Times reported on some odd indicators of the state of the economy-such as men's underwear sales and grow-your-own food gardening.  Some might be poor indicators.   Link to article

economic indicators

     
23/12/2009

129 The NY Times reported on the creation and then short sale by G Sachs, hedge funds,and other investment banks of MBS these investment banks had sold to investors who (by being long) took the opposite view on the mtg market.  Creation and short-sale created a conflict of interest, which netted the banks and hedge funds $ billions when the mortgage market and the associated MBS subsequently collapsed in value.   Link to article

moral hazard

short-sales

MBS

 

     
19/12/2009

128 The Times reported iCap USA had 'engaged in deceptive broking activity', i.e., it fictitiously displayed thousands of trades to attract customers to trade with it. It was fined $25m by the SEC as a result.  

Link to article

moral hazard

     
19/12/2009

127 Breakingviews.com illustrates the uncertainty (risk) investors face in valuing the future revenue of a project, and possibly being too optimistic and thereby over-paying.   Link to article

valuation

     
19/12/2009

126 Breakingviews.com illustrates the contrast in value saved and lost mostly through timing acquisitions relative to the market price.  Exxon seems to have timed its acquisition well below the peak whereas Conoco bought at the peak, each massively affecting their values subsequently.   Link to article

M&A

valuation

     
18/12/2009

125 The NY Times reported on a misery index highlighting those countries whose govts are unable to spend because of their budget deficits yet their country's unemployment rate is rising. It also highlights the mistake of ignoring the consequences of asset inflation.   Link to article

budget deficits

misery index

     
18/12/2009

124 The NY Times reported the bank of Japan has left its official rate at 0.1% to combat deflation - which has plagued Japan for the last decade -and to avoid it falling into recession.  Bond prices surged on the possibility of the govt buying bonds.  Link to article

deflation

bond prices

     
17/12/2009

123 The NY Times reported the SEC has fined Ernst & Young $8.5m for breaching auditing standards involving one of its auditing clients and thereby failing in its duty to to the public.   Link to article

audit

moral hazard

     
17/12/2009

122 The Times reported Toronto Dominion bank has been fined heavily (£7m) by the FSA for a repeat offence, this time relating to inadequate controls on valuing trading positions.  Link to article

operational risk

     
16/12/2009

121 The NY Times reported on bills that would re-instate the Glass-Steagall Act and split banks' activities.

  Link to article

Glass-Steagall

     
16/12/2009

120 The NY Times reported on debt collection problems faced by small businesses, and their recourse.

  Link to article

credit risk

SMEs

     
16/12/2009

119 The NY Times reported Credit Suisse was fined over $500m for facilitating Iranian money transfers.  Lloyds was fined $350m in Jan for a similar offence involving Iran, Libya, and Sudan   Link to article

moral hazard

banks

     
14/12/2009

118 The NY Times reported on the Greek PM's strategy to reduce its budget deficit, including severe govt cutbacks, and a 90% tax on bank bonuses.   Link to article

budget deficit

economy

     
14/12/2009

117 The Times reported on the risks many european governments face of credit downgrade owing to high debt and budget deficits in relation to their GDP, leading to marked rises in interest costs   Link to article

budgets

credit rating

     
13/12/2009

116 The Times reported on the extortionate fees (billions) charged by insolvency practitioners leaving unsecured creditors with little if any value from administration proceedings.  Link to article

insolvency

fees

     
13/12/2009

115 The Times reported the BoE is making billions in profits from its bank bailouts, SLS, and its Quant. Easing (owing to the positive carry on the Gilts it is buying and funding at just 0.5%pa).  Link to article

bank bailouts

quant easing

     
13/12/2009

114 The Times reported on the events prior to and after Terra Firma's disasterous acquisition of EMI and its funding by Citibank, for which Citi got £92.5m in fees.  Link to article

private equity

     
12/12/2009

113c The FT reported pre-financial crisis covenants are creeping back into debt issues because of the increased investor demand for bonds.  They cite, PIKs, or covs that are not reinserted on docs if a company is downgraded but had previously been upgraded.  Moody's' snr covenants officer, Alex Dill, notes: "when managers have room to make a decision, their primary duty is to equity holders, not bond holders". Moody's cites a 7 year $500m bond of Compofrio Foods with minimal covenant protection, yet it was over-subscribed 5x. The bond allows the company to reclassify its debt to flatter its covenant ratios and maximise its gearing ratio.

covenants

cov lite

bonds

     
11/12/2009

113b The FT reported research by Partners Group shows the median enterprise value of private equity buy out deals fell from $2bn to $0.3bn, and gearing fell from 9x to 6.5x, when comparing the period 2005-08 to H1 2009. However, RoI rose to 28% from 22%, and is to come from operational improvements rather than from growth.

private equity

buy outs

gearing

     
07/12/2009

113a Morningstar.com reported on a debate by Wharton bus school professors on the culprits of the financial crisis.   Link to article

financial crisis

     
07/12/2009

113 The NY Times reported on lack of drive by the US govt to reform the operating model of rating agencies - who have been blaimed for the financial crisis.  Link to article

rating agencies

     
06/12/2009

112 The NY Times reported on soveriegn wealth funds making fat gains from investments in banks in crisis, but some have fared less well.  Link to article

sovereign wealth

funds

     
03/12/2009

111 The NY Times reported Rusal will restructure its $7.4bn debt mountain on terms that allow it to pay banks 'when it can' over 4 years, i.e., based on its perfromance and on the price of aluminium; missed payments will be capitalised.   Link to article

debt

restructuring

'pay when you can'

     
28/11/2009

110 The NY Times reported the % of loans distressed has risen from 1.5% to 8.7% y/y for hotels (almost 2 times the level in commercial property and retail sectors), illustrating the dire straits of this sector.

Link to article

distressed loans

     
26/11/2009

109 The NY Times reported the Yen is at a 14-year high vs the USD, raising concerns on its exports and delay its exit from recession, and lost sales to the Chinese whose curency is pegged to the $.   Link to article

currency risk

exports

     
26/11/2009

108 CityAM reported the UK govt is to implement in full the Walker report on corporate governance and exec pay.  Read the ket recommendations  here:   Link to article

corporate governance

Walker report

     
26/11/2009

107 CityAM reported the Dubai govt's investment company, Dubai World, asked for a 6mth moratorium on debt repayment, sending the cost of insuring Dubai's sovereign debt upwards and above that of iceland! Rating agencies might consider the plan a default.  The Times reported that the news knocked £14bn off the value of UK banks who might have lent to Dubai. Link to article  Link to article

moratorium

default

soveriegn debt

     
25/11/2009

106c The NY Times reported Vietnam has devalued its currency by 5% to align it with the black market exchange rate and so instil confidence in the official exzch rate.  It also raised interest rates to stem inflation and the supply of credit (thereby stifling further rapid growth of asset prices).  Link to article

Vietnam

devaluation

monetary policy

     
25/11/2009

106b CityAM reported Lloyds bank is to issue £13.5bn in the biggest ever rights issue.  Advisers are estimated to get £350m from the deal.  Lloyds is also issuing £8.5bn in CoCo bonds.  Link to article

rights issue

CoCo bonds

     
25/11/2009

106a CityAM reported Chinese banks that have been encouraged by  the govt (to stimulate the economy) have thereby lowered their cap adequacy ratios below 9% from 10%, and must raise equity capital to restore their ratios before further loans can be made.   Link to article

capital adequacy

China

banks

     
24/11/2009

106 The NY Times reported Russia has lowered its repo rate on central bank loans to 8% to discourage foreign speculation on the ruble (which has appreciated rapidly) and to encourage bank lending to stimulate the economy.   Link to article

currency risk

interest rates

     
24/11/2009

106 The Times reported the FSA has fined Nomura £1.75m for “fundamental and systemic control failings” which enbled a trader to mis-state the value of equity derivative trades.  Nomura had to make a negative value adjustment of £11m when the mis-statements were discovered.   Link to article

operational risk

FSA

     
22/11/2009

105a The Times reported bookseller, Borders, is close to administration owing to reduced credit insurance (preventing it getting book supplies) and funds, and greater competition.  Link to article

credit insurance

finacial distress

     
20/11/2009

105 The NY Times reported the UK corporate bond sector is undeveloped and so heavily reliant on bank credit.  Troubled banks will reduce corporate lending over the next 2 years so denying them needed credit, leading to a double-dip recession or stagnation.  Link to article

UK bond mkt

bank debt

recession

     
20/11/2009

104 The NY Times reported 5 investment funds in Ohio are to sue rating agencies because of false and misleading ratings on MBS that cost the funds $457m.  

rating agencies

     
20/11/2009

103 The BoE reported in its Nov Trends in Lending report that corporate costs of bank finance have increased markedly over the year, largely due to increased bank fees charged.  Also, some banks have attributed the widening of spreads on loans to corporates to banks' own costs of long term financing rising and because they say it's harder to raise long-term bank finance.

bank debt

spreads

bank fees

     
18/11/2009

102 The NY Times reported US bank regulators admit they were too lax in their regulation of banks that subsequently failed.    Link to article

banks

regulation

     
17/11/2009

101a The Evening Standard reported AIM has fined Regal Petroleum, advised by broker, Evolution, £600K for statements it made (regarding an oil project) that were misleading, inaccurate and consistently over-optimistic, but which saw its share price at the time rise to over £5 but then crash when the oil wells were found to be dry.   Another case of corporate management sleaze to line their pockets

ethics

     
16/11/2009

101 The NY Times reported the Fed chairman said the continued reluctance of banks to lend would probably slow economic recovery next year.    Link to article

bank debt

economic growth

     
16/11/2009

100 The Times reported the case of a SME which paid a 1/3 of its loan in fees to obtain a bank loan using the govt's EFG scheme, illustrating the high cost of bank finance.    Link to article

SME

fees

     
16/11/2009

99 The Times reported more SMEs are finding it difficult to obtain credit, despite govt attempts with QE to provide credit.  However, almost 2/3 said their biggest barrier to growth over the next year was a lack of consumer demand, followed by finance, regulation, exchange rates and input costs.    Link to article

SME

growth

finance

     
13/11/2009

98 The Times reported KKR is to list its discount retailer, Dollar General, in an $8bn IPO to pay down debt and pay $68m to its underwriters (G Sachs and KKR). The move illustrates the PE & LBO model.    Link to article

IPO

Fees

     
13/11/2009

97 The Times reported the NAPFM, who hold 13% of stock market, has written again to FTSE 350 chairmen to restrain pay of its high earners and review compensation culture.  Pension funds were accused on being absentee landlords in the run up to the financial crisis.   Link to article      Link to article

fiduciary duty

compensation

     
13/11/2009

96 The Times reported the FSA is to investigate potentially misleading reporting by HBOS of the true state of its loan book at the time of its capital raisings in 2008, because the scale of write-offs only emerged after its merger with Lloyds.    Link to article

fiduciary duty

prospectus

ethics

     
13/11/2009

95 The Times reported BA is to merge with Iberia, both of which have lost £100s of millions in 6mths of 2009.  The main benefit of merging will be economies of scale on supplies such as fuel, aircraft.  BA has a pension deficit of £2.6bn, the same as BA's value.    Link to article

economies of scale

pension deficit

     
12/11/2009

94 The Times reported Intel and AMD have agreed Intel will pay AMD $1.25bn to settle AMD's legal claims against Intel for abusive competition practices.  Intel was fined $1.45bn by the EC this year and a NY federal lawsuit for the same reason.    Link to article

market abuse

competition

     
12/11/2009

94 The Times reported the OFT is to investigate the relatively high cost of insolvency in the UK, including insolvency fees.  There is concern that creditors are not getting a fair deal.  From comments, insolvency practitioners are vultures charging extortionate fees leaving creditors short.  Link to article

insolvency

fees

     
10/11/2009

93 The Times reported the £ rose owing to the depreciation of the $ because G20 leaders did not signal support for the $.  Commodities, incl. gold, rose as a result (they are priced in $).  

currency risk

     
11/11/2009

92a The NY Times reported on the exposure of banks that have lent heavily to shipping companies facing a recession in cargo shipping, and whose security (the ships) have fallen in value from less trade and from an oversupply of vessels (old and new ones).  One bank has lent 7x its equity as shipping loans!  Link to article

security

shipping loans

credit risk

     
10/11/2009

92 The Times reported the UK trade deficit rose unexpectedly owing to a massive rise in car imports (a side-effect of the scrappage scheme) (despite the depreciated £), and oil imports.  GBP's depreciation should have narrowed the deficit in recent months.   Link to article

trade deficit

imports

oil

     
09/11/2009

91c CityAM reported 120 US banks have failed in 2009, versus 25 in 2008 and just 3 in 2007, illustrating the severity of the banking crisis and/or the lax regulation in the US in the run up to the crisis.  Link to article

bank failures

regulation

     
09/11/2009

91b CityAM reported casino operator, Vegas Sands, is to list its Macau division on the HK Stock Exchange to "boost the value of the company's overall business". The HK IPO is also to take advantage of an IPO window of opportunity to raise funds.  Link to article

IPO

listing

window

     
09/11/2009

91a CityAM reported only 21% of SMEs ever used a bank loan. 50% used an overdraft.  They also used: business (68%) and personal (59%) credit cards, personal loans (50%), and equity (21%) from friends and family.  It found 1/3 of bank loan apps failed.  Link to article

SME

debt

funding

     
09/11/2009

91 The Times reported 3 brokers are being forced out from companies' rights issues by RBS and Lloyds who force the companies they lend to instead use their broking and investment banking services or face losing credit lines.  The brokers have complained to the City minister.   Link to article

investment banking

ethics

broking

     
06/11/2009

90 The Times reported the FSA has fined UBS for poor operational controls that allowed employees to use client money for unauthorised trading and be able to conceal their losses.  UBS compensated affected clients £26m.   Link to article

operational risk

controls

FSA

     
06/11/2009

89 The Times reported the BoE has injected a further £25bn by QE.  It said a lack of credit constrained economic growth.  the UK economy is the only major economy still in a recession.  Inflation is unlikely to rise significantly however owing to substantial spare capacity in the economy.   Link to article

QE

Inflation

lack of credit

     
06/11/2009

88 The Times reported manufacturers' input prices rose owing to higher oil costs and the depreciated £ making imports more expensive.  Output prices also rose, stoking inflation.   Link to article

input costs

inflation

currency risk

     
06/11/2009

87 The NY Times reported IPO market in Asia has waned as investors fear economic prospects and falling markets, plus perhaps a glut of IPOs recently.  Those IPOs in pipeline have to reprice downwards or pull entirely.  It illustrates the fickleness of markets.   Link to article

IPOs

     
06/11/2009

86 The NY Times reported Blackberry maker, RIM, has decided to spend upto $1.2bn buying back its shares which it believes are undervalued.  The market price moved just 0.3% indicating the market did not agree.   Link to article

share buy-back

     
03/11/2009

85 The Times reported the Australian central bank has raised rates by 0.25%, citing strong growth in the economies of its trading partners, and its own, so that it could now look to ease off the monetary stimulus  and seek instead to curb inflation risk by raising its official interest rates.   Link to article

inflation

monetary stimulus

economic growth

     
03/11/2009

84 The Times reported Ford was affected by the 'sustained and severe' depreciation of £ versus € and offset this by raising UK sale prices.  It imports car parts from the continent into the UK, thereby raising production costs.   Link to article

currency risk

     
02/11/2009

83 The Times reports on a comparison of the perfomance of the PE model versus other business ownership models, in the retail sector.   Link to article

PE groups

retail

     
02/11/2009

82 The Times reports on other countries' strategies to grow their economies and how the UK is lagging behind.   Link to article

economy

recession

UK performance

     
26/10/2009

81 The Times reported Yell will pay upto an extra 1% in interest if its syndicate of 200+ banks agree to extend the maturity date of the bulk of its £3.8bn debt until 2014.  So far they have failed to reach agreement to the restructuring, for which 95% must agree (surprise, surprise).  It plans to raise £500m through a right issue to repay part of the remaining debt but its share price has fallen 10% on news of the disagreement.

Link to article

interest

debt

gearing

rights issue

syndicated debt

     
26/10/2009

80 The NY Times reported ING is to raise $11bn to repurchase shares issued to the Dutch govt under the bank's bailout.  It will pay a 15% premium to do so (upto $1.4bn), far less than the 50% premium if it had delayed. It has also paid almost $2bn to the govt for backing its risky assets.  The bank has also decided to split its banking and insurance divisions and sell the latter, despite the combination providing advantages of scale, capital efficiency and earnings from a diversified portfolio of businesses.  All this illustrates the destruction of shareholder value.   Link to article

bank failure

bailout

economies

diversification

     
25/10/2009

79a The FT reported on a plan by large investment managers such as Std Life, M&G, Legal & General and Aegon to bypass investment banks and thereby save fees paid to them for rights issues which have risen and are now considered unfair.  Link to article  Link to article

rights issues

bank fees

disintermedn

     
25/10/2009

79 The NY Times reported the case of a company trying to recover a loan on a securitised residential mortgage by possessing the property, but it failed in court because it could not prove ownership of the mortgage due to lax assignment of the mortgage and property during their securitisation, and the $400,000 loan has been wiped off.  It illustrates the importance of careful and proper documentation at each step of a securitisation. Not entirely good news for the home occupier because the property has no clear title so will be difficult to refinance or sell.   Link to article

securitisation

possession

title

administration

     
20/10/2009

78 The Times reported Brazil's currency has appreciated by inflows of foreign capital, and it has levied a 2% tax to keep speculative capital (hot money) - capital that invests in stocks and bonds, out of the country.  The country's stock index has risen 79% and it currenyc, 33% against the $, this year.   Link to article

hot money

foreign capital

currency risk

     
14/10/2009

77 The Times reported ITV's convertible bond was 10x over-subscribed and it was raised from £100m to £135m to meet demand, and it was able to improve its terms and offer 4% instead of potentially 4.75% and a conversion premium of 40% not the 37% expected.  The share price rose 7%.  Also see 13 Oct   Link to article

convertible debt

conversion premium

     
13/10/2009

76 The NY Times reported the EU is to impose anti-dumping import duties on imports of shoes from China and Vietnam on the grounds their governments were unfairly subsidising their shoemakers, and to appease European shoemakers and retailers.  One lobby group said its members had paid around $400m pa in such import duties.   Link to article

anti-dumping

imports

protectionism

     
13/10/2009

75 The NY Times reported India's currency has appreciated 11% since March as foreign direct investment soars (and so the Indian rupee); the possibility of the government raising interest rates to curb inflation could appreciate it further.  The appreciation has already affected exporters.  Illustrating the foreign demand for Indian assets, companies are raising $billions through stocks and bonds, and Oil India's IPO was 31x oversubscribed.  The foreign inflows could easily go elsewhere and there is also the risk that they will create asset price bubbles.   Link to article

asset bubbles

inflation

currency risk

foreign investment

IPO

     
13/10/2009

74 The NY Times reported China has become a dominant exporter to the disadvantage of many other exporting countries, helped by its relatively weak currency that it has pegged to the weak USD.  The article claims the US government is not being critical of China to ensure it continues to buy US govt. debt.  China has encouraged exports also by offering exporters tax credits and subsidised loans, and can reduce migrant workers' wages to match demands from foreign buyers to lower prices.   Link to article

currency risk

exports

US govt debt

     
13/10/2009

73 The Times reported retailer, JJB Sports, is to undertake a £100m rights issue that will incur £6m in expenses, and reduce reliance on supplier credit and increase operational flexibility.  The share price rose, presumably because it strengthens the company's viability.  Half of the shares have been placed prior to their issue in a 'firm placing'   Link to article

rights issue

firm placing

fees

     
13/10/2009

72 The Times reported £ depreciated after inflation figures were lower tnan expected (to 1.1%pa), prompting fears that interest rates would stay low until 2011.  The increase in money supply is unlikely to fuel inflation for some time owing to dire conditions, but at some point it could rise strongly   Link to article

inflation

money supply

exchange rate

     
13/10/2009

71 The Times reported ITV is to issue a convertible bond at 4.75% convertible in 7 years and at a 37% premium on the current share price.  It will also transfer its business, SDN, to its pension fund to plug its deficit, possibly because it could not sell it. Also see News 14 Oct   Link to article

convertible bond

pension deficit

     
12/10/2009

70 The Times reported the government is to sell of £16bn of assets including central and local government properties, the channel tunnel, and uranium mining assets, to pay off the government deficit.  £13bn is also to come from tax rises.   Link to article

government debt

asset sales

     
06/10/2009

69 The NY Times reported on the extraction of cash by PE firms using a dividend recapitalisation. It also reveals how PE firms get fat quickly (getting their 2%) just by doing deals. Link to article  Link to article

dividend

recapitalisation

     
28/09/2009

68 The NY Times reported on the use of gold as collateral by Indians seeking loans, albeit at high interest rates, because conventional bank loans are unavailable.   Link to article

gold

pawn broking

     
28/09/2009

67 The NY Times reported on the strength of the Yen versus the USD and its cause and effect on Japanese exports and imports.   Link to article

exchange rate

     
24/09/2009

66 The Times reported comments by the BoE Governor that GBP's depreciation is good for exports, caused GBP to decline farther; it has depreciated almost 25% over 2 years against major currencies.   Link to article

exports

exchange rate

     
24/09/2009

65 The Times reported JJB Sports saw its losses rise 230% and sales fall over 20%, over 6 mths, mostly because of stock shortages.  Its auditor has warned of the adverse effect on covenants and cashflow if forecasting assumptions change just a little.   Link to article

forecasting

stock

cashflow

     
15/09/2009

64 The Times reported Blockbuster video is to close upto 960 stores to reduce costs and keep its lenders happy.  It estimates annual savings of $30m as a result, but upto $60m in lease termination costs.  Also, it placed privately upto $340m of senior secured debt due 2014.   Link to article

private placement

leases

cashflow

     
15/09/2009

63 The Times reported banks bailed out with UK government (taxpayers') funds are being told by regulators to withhold coupon payments on bonds, thereby lowering their price (value). The regulator's justification is that bondholders should share the burden of financial distress of banks that otherwise would have collapsed.  The UK's ABI has threatened that investors could revolt.   Link to article  Link to article

bonds

coupons

value

bank bailout

     
15/09/2009

62 The Times reported Lehman's liquidator is claiming $8bn from Barclays on the grounds Lehman assets sold to Barclays were under-valued deliberately by Lehman staff so they could get jobs at Barclays post-sale.  Barclays says the liquidator is being opportunistic now the economy is stabilising (meaning asset values will not fall so any revaluation is only going to increase, limiting downside risk for the liquidator). Barclays does not appear to have denied the allegation.      Link to article

ethics

valuation

     
14/09/2009

61a The Times reported the US has raised its tariff on Chinese tyre imports to 35% in an act of protectionism and after US unions claimed imports had risen 3-fold in 5  years and cost %k jobs.  The Chinese claim the act would cost $1bn and upto 100K chinese jobs.  The US has also imposed tariffs on Chines pipe imports.

Link to article

protectionism

     
11/09/2009

61 The NY Times reported Ikea Russia had thwarted attempts by its Russian electricity supplier by renting power generators instead, only to find that the rental company had been siphoning off Ikea cash by charging exorbitant rents that were approved by a Russian Ikea employee who had been bribed!   Link to article

corruption

     
08/09/2009

60 Breakingviews.com reported on the synergistic value created by Kraft's proposed takeover of Cadbury's, and the loss of it by paying a premium over the pre-announcement share price, so that any further premium would destroy's Kraft's value   Link to article

M&A

valuation

     
08/09/2009

59 The Times reported gold has broken through $1000 per oz owing to reduced supply from governments, its purchase as a hedge against expected inflation as economies recover, and a weaker USD.  On the other hand, demand for gold jewellery is at a 5-yr low because of the recession.   Link to article

inflation hedge

gold

recession

     
07/09/2009

58 The NY Times reported on Buffet's mistakes, including buying into Irish banks as their economy faltered, an energy company at the height of the oil price, not selling shares at their peak before the collapse, and not seeing the housing bubble burst.   Link to article

Buffet

investment

     
07/09/2009

57 Breakingviews.com reported on the issue by casino operator, Sands, of pre-IPO bonds convertible into shares at a 10% discount to the IPO price, and paid a 9% coupon until conversion.  The risk is the IPO fails and they hold illiquid convertible debt, though the coupon then rises.  Sand is in trouble and paid an additional 2.25% in interest to relax debt covenants.   Link to article

debt covenants

convertibles

IPO

     
07/09/2009

56 Breakingviews.com reported on the loss of hedge funds' prime-broker business by large US banks (owing to their perceived credit risk) to other players who have gained a foothold.   Link to article

prime broking

credit risk

     
06/09/2009

55 The New York Times reported on US political interests determining the relative priority of natural gas and coals.     Link to article

politics

commodities

     
05/09/2009

54 The New York Times reported on plans to securitise life policies bought by investors from holders who settle for cash. Investors continue to pay on the hope of a payout when the seller passes on.  Concern has been expressed it will lead to the same problems of the sub-prime meltdown - greedy rating agencies, brokers, and bankers.     Link to article

securitisation

ethics

     
30/08/2009

53 The New York Times reported the US Treasury paid an avg of 34% more than the market price for its pref shares and equity warrants, to bailout banks, a shortfall of $78bn for TARP purchases in 2008 according to the COP's Feb 09 report. The report also noted Berkshire Hathaway and Arabians got 110% and 123% of what each paid for investing in Goldman Sachs & Barclays respectively.   Link to article

valuation

fair price

TARP

     
30/08/2009

52 The Times reported total fees to sort out the claims of Lehman's liquidation could net $4bn for the 2000 involved.   Link to article

Lehman

liquidation

     
29/08/2009

51 The Times reported champagne merchants are forcing producers to cut back production to maintain higher champagne prices - more than producers are willing to.  The market manipulation mimics that of oil cartels such as OPEC on the price of oil.  Reduced consumer demand and destocking by distributors have meant producers holding greater stock than normal.   Link to article

market manipulation

champagne

pricing

     
26/08/2009

50 The New York Times reported the risk homebuyers took by opting to pay low interest initially and more later by betting they could sell their home at a higher price (or at least at the purchase price) before the higher rate started.  With the collapse, they are facing significant rises in interest.  80% of such mortgages written in 2007 are expected to default.   Link to article

market risk

interest rate risk

option ARMS

     
26/08/2009

49 The New York Times reported the price of solar panels has fallen as demand falls and supply of panels increases.  However, manufacturers are not suffering as the lower prices are attracting a wider pool of consumers to buy the panels.  Link to article

pricing

demand

market size

     
23/08/2009

48 The Times reported the UK govt's corpn tax receipt has fallen almost 40% y/y, and VAT receipts for Jul fell £3.6bn versus Jul 2008.  Rising unemployment is likely to reduce income tax and NI.  Calls to raise taxes and cut public spending have been raised.  The fall in tax receipts is 300% worse than the Chancellor had forecast for the 2009 budget. Link to article

forecasting

taxation

economy

     
21/08/2009

47 The Times reported energy suppliers are forcing small companies to pay for energy upto 7 mths in advance, seeking deposits, or allowing just 5 days to pay bills - in case they become insolvent, and also because trade credit insurers who would pay bills of insolvent companies, are now rejecting 60% of credit insurance applications vs 5% 2 years ago.     Link to article

credit risk

cashflow

utilities

     
20/08/2009

46 The New York Times reported on the rise of US bank failures in recent years, not through ignorantly buying complex securities and derivatives, but through the triumph of asset growth over risk management. Link to article

asset growth

bank loans

credit risk

     
20/08/2009

45 The New York Times reported the Swiss government has made a 32% annualised return ($1.1bn) from selling its bailout stake in UBS.  Other european governments are having to saty put owing to lingering problems with their banks (e.g., RBS).  $7 trillion was allocated to bailing out banks in 11 countries.

Link to article

bank bailouts

     
20/08/2009

44 The New York Times reported the price of natural gas has fallen from $13 in 2008 to under $3, owing to a glut in supply and fall in use owing to the depresssed economy.  Stronger producers could take over weaker ones.  It's good news however for many business consumers who might have failed otherwise     Link to article

commodity risk

economy

     
14/08/2009

43 The Times reported Germany & France have reversed their negative GDPs and are both growing.  This has been fuelled by consumer & public spending, and lower trade imports.  UK GDP by contrast contracted and can't rely on heavily indebted consumers to spend, and a weakened banking sector     Link to article

GDP

economies

consumer debt

     
07/08/2009

42 The FT reported flash trading (which allows traders with super-fast computers to gain an unfair trading advantage by seeing trade orders fractionally sooner than other traders, and then using this information to place their own orders), is to be stopped on certain exchanges, after the SEC raised concerns.

transparency

flash trading

     
05/08/2009

41 The FT reported UK FTSE100 companies pension deficits ballooned to £96bn in July 09, double that of Jul 2008, owing to cuts in discount rates used to value liabilities.

pension values

discount rates

     
04/08/2009

40 The FT reported retail investors have taken and average of 20% of corporate bond issues, up from 3%, in recent years.  Institutional investors are inclined to invest in primary issues therefore, knowing retail demand will support or raise primary prices in the secondary market.  The number of corporate bonds in retail-sized denominations, has risen 26% in 2008 to 44% in 2009 (ytd)

retail bonds

pricing

     
04/08/2009

39 The FT reported sugar prices rose to a 25-year high because of India's poor sugar crop following its poor monsoon, and it's likely to tap the global sugar markets (it's the biggest consumer of sugar).  Prices have risen 60% since Jan and 100% in the last year.  The Indian govt has allowed duty-free imports and imports by NGOs 

commodity risk

tariffs

     
04/08/2009

38 The FT reported the TED spread fell to its lowest margin in 2 years (to 29bp from 464bp on Oct 2008), indicating reduced financial stress.  A sign of investors returning to risk is the rise in secondary price of european leveraged loans to 89% of face (the highest since Jul 2008), and will support primary issue prices    

TED spread

risk appetite

lev loans

     
31/07/2009

37 The New York Times reported the Indian stock market has rallied as domestic and foreign investors re-enter the market on the expectation of economic recovery ahead of western economies, spurring IPO and private placement activity by issuers, and at prices far lower than 2007 & 2008.     Link to article

IPOs

private placement

equity market

     
31/07/2009

36 The New York Times reported UBS paid $780m in Feb to settle charges that it helped US citizens evade tax on $20bn held offshore.   

moral hazard

tax evasion

     
30/07/2009

35 The New York Times reported insurer Capco, set up by Wall St banks might not have sufficient resources to meet Lehman-related bankruptcy claims, and banks are now insuring via Lloyds.    Link to article

captive insurance

     
30/07/2009

34 The New York Times reported banks paid 5000 of its staff over $1m each in bonuses in 2008 despite the banks being bailed out with taxpayers' money.    Link to article

moral hazard

bonuses

     
29/07/2009

33 The New York Times reported of the tactics of residential mortgage lenders to deliberately prolong time in arrears so they can claim various kinds of related fees, and to stall loan arrangements.    Link to article

moral hazard

     
29/07/2009 32 Structuredfinancenews.com reported the credit rating of insurer, Ambac, has been cut to junk status (CC) on the basis its surplus over its liabilities could be wiped out by losses on RMBS it insures.   It is in run-off mode.  Losses relate to rising fwd LIBOR increasing its cash outflows, and a deterioration in the collateral in its CDOs.   Link to article  Link to article

monoline insurance

credit risk

cashflow

forecasting

     
27/07/2009 31 The FT reported US pension fund, CALPERS, has bought back shopping malls for $1.7bn, $1bn LESS than it sold them 4 years ago.  However, its own portfolio has also shown its steepest decline in its 80-year history.

property

valuation

     
27/07/2009 30 The FT reported emerging market bond issuance has risen 45% compared to the same period in 2007 before the financial crisis, indicating a move to riskier assets by investors.  In the UK a similar shift has been illustrated by the shift out of national savings by investors.

bonds

risk

     
27/07/2009

29 The Times reported the commercial property sector can only absorb £20bn of refinancing a year, far short of the £150bn of commercial debt to be refinanced in the next 2-3 years.  A similar funding shortfall will occur in the US market.  Values in the UK have fallen 40% in 2 years, and globally rents fell the steepest on record, sapping market confidence.    Link to article

valuation

funding gap

confidence

     
27/07/2009 28 The Times reported can maker, Rexam, saw its share price fall 10% on fears it would issue equity to stave off a credit downgrade to junk status.  Junk status would add substantially to its interest costs. Shares had risen 18% since June, partly from refinancing its debt.     Link to article

rights issue

credit rating

interest cost

     
26/07/2009 27 The Times reported oil companies BG, Shell & BP will together lose over $10bn in profits y/y owing to reduced demand for and fall in price of, oil.     Link to article

oil revenue

demand

     
26/07/2009 26a The Times reported foreign banks are re-entering the UK residential mortgage market, filling a gap left by reluctant UK banks.     Link to article

mortgages

bank loans

     
24/07/2009

26 BreakingViews.com reported the european IPO market might take off again as investors' risk appetite returns. A brake on the market's revival is (it's thought), valuation (as it is in property markets).    

Link to article

valuation

IPO

     
23/07/2009 25 The Times reported pharmaceutical company, GSK, will generate around £2bn in revenue from swine flu drugs over the next 2 years and would likely make a profit, but it has spent £ billions over 14 years preparing for a flu pandemic..     Link to article

revenue

drug prodn

pandemic

     
23/07/2009 24 Growthbusiness.co.uk reported the UK has twice as many companies struggling to pay off creditors than Germany or Italy, and 4 times as many as France.  Part of the reason is the UK's indulgence with LBOs (it did the most in Europe) and cov-lite loans that have created the living-dead companies.     Link to article

cov-lite

LBOs

creditors

     
21/07/2009 23 The New York Times the Fed chairman did not feel inflation was a risk - if a burst of consumer demand did arise - with so much money being pumped into the economy by the Fed and its decision to keep interest rates low, because of ample unused production capacity, high unemployment, and the Fed's ability to remove liquidity from the system.    Link to article

economics

interest rates

     
21/07/2009 22 Growthbusiness.co.uk reported the risk of a depreciation of £, thought to be overvalued, would result in inflation. A danger of deflation would suggest traders keep less stock but if inflation rises, higher stock levels is the better strategy.     Link to article

stock levels

inflation

deflation

     
15/07/2009 21 The New York Times reported Calpers, the US's largest pension fund, is suing the 3 US rating agencies for negligent misrepresentation, and inaccurate ratings.  The fund lost $1bn on SIVs, which the agencies helped to structure and earned fees upto $1m for, on top of rating fees.  No mention of whether the fund failed in its own duty of care and risk assessment before investing.     Link to article

conflict of interest

rating agency

SIVs

     
14/07/2009 20 The New York Times reported the German govt is delaying a tax-payer bailout of its relatively under-capitalised and bad-asset banking system, until after its election.  This is expected to delay its recovery from the crisis.  As in the UK, banks have cutback on longer-term loans (33% lower y/y)    Link to article

politics

capital adequacy

bank debt

     
14/07/2009 19 The Times reported shares in C&C fell 16% after it announced a downward correction in its revenue figures.  It claimed the error was due to incompetence.  Share buyers could claim compensation owing to a false market being created for the shares.    Link to article

operational risk

reputation risk

     
14/07/2009 18 The Times reported airline, BA, has depended substantially on premium travellers, and their exodus could take 5 years to recover. First and business class volumes have fallen 15% versus 1% for economy, suggesting more execs are flying economy. A study found 70% companies have cut their travel budget and 48% thought reduced business travel would not hurt their business.    Link to article

revenue

strategy

     
13/07/2009 17 Marketwatch.com reported the S Korean Won fell 2.4% against the USD on news Sth Korea's political leader had cancer.     Link to article

politics

currency risk

     
13/07/2009 16 The Times reported sports shirt maker, Canterbury Europe, has gone into administration owing to a failed move into other sports, GBP's depreciation raising Far East import costs, and difficult trading.      Link to article

strategy

currency risk

     
12/07/2009 15 The Times reported Terra Firma (TF) has asked Citigroup to write off £500m it lent to EMI in return for TF injecting £250m. TF has written off half its equity in EMI.  Citi was left holding the whole £4bn it lent for TF to buy EMI because it could not be syndicated, and because the debt is on'cov-lite' terms it prevents Citi from taking over on a default.     Link to article

cov lite

default

restructuring

     
10/07/2009 14 The Times reported a UK company admitted to corruption and breaking UN sanctions.  It bribed Iraqi officials to win trade contracts.  The UN accused half of the 45K companies involved in Iraq, of paying kickbacks and surcharges in exchange for lucrative contracts.  In 2007, the Times reported BA was fined £270m by the OFT and US DoJ for price fixing in collusion with Virgin Atlantic (who avoided prosecution by tipping off) Link to article  Link to article

corruption

operational risk

price-fixing

     
10/07/2009 13 The Times reported the Irish rate of inflation is -5.5%pa (its lowest since the Gt Depresssion), raising the real value of indebtedness but giving relief to mortgage and household costs.     Link to article

deflation

valuation

     
09/07/2009 12 The NY Times reported the price of crude oil has dropped 16% in 6 days (its steepest fall in almost 3 years) revealing the market had been overly optimistic of the pace of recovery of the global economy after the global economic crisis (driving its price up 100% since year end).  Prior to the crisis, strong oil demand and low supply had fuelled its rise.  The current price is not expected to fall drastically though if OPEC controls its supply.     Link to article

crude oil

forecasting

     
08/07/2009 11 The FT reported sub-prime lender, Cattles, will go into administration if creditors can't agree on their debt's relative priority of payment (and the courts will decide).  Its defaulted bonds trade at 11.5p per £1

default

distressed debt

     
07/07/2009 10a The FT reported that a survey of 500 small business FDs said their lack of currency risk knowledge had a negative impact on profits.  92% of companies were affected by GBP's volatility, and almost half of them said it had a significant impact.  40 and 45% of importers and exporters respectively did not actively manage their FX risk.

currency risk

small business

     
07/07/2009 10 The FT reported corporate bond issuance is expected to rise above pre-crisis levels as banks' higher capital adequacy charges reduce their lending capacity.  Banks have also raised their lending charges and reduced the length of their loans (rarely over 5-7 yrs), further reducing their appeal.  In contrast, energy company, EnBW, issued a 30-yr bond that was 6x over-subscribed (confirming investor appetite)

bond market

bank debt

capital adequacy

     
07/07/2009 9 The FT reported the Indian govt has doubled import tax on gold & silver imports, as part of its budget measures.  Prices are expected to rise accordingly.

import tax

     
06/07/2009 8 The FT reported a secondary market in the State of California IOUs has started.  They pay 3.75% pa (less than the State would pay if it funded itself in the money market), are transferable, and will be accepted as deposits by banks.

IOUs

tradeable debt

     
06/07/2009 7 The Times reported shares in internet company, Phorm, fell 30% after 'phone company, BT, pulled out of a contract with Phorm to supply web 'spy' software.   On the 7 Jul, the Times reported Carphone Warehouse has pulled out because BT has and the shares had fallen 40%.  Link to article      Link to article

revenue

share price

     
05/07/2009 6 The Times reported returns on junk bonds (aka high yield debt) have been 'staggering' and the market is 'booming', however, it also points out that the rate of defaults has risen to 9% in the year ended May 09, and is expected to rise to 14% by Q4, versus just 1% in the year ended Dec 2007.                 Link to article

risk-return

junk bonds

     
03/07/2009 5 The Times reported shares in advertiser, WPP, fell 7% (making it the worst performing blue chip) on the back of an analyst's poor prospects for it, and illustrating the impact analysts have on investors.     Link to article

revenue

analysts' views

     
03/07/2009 4 The Times reported retailer, JJB Sports, is seeking to raise equity for working capital.  It said that "...a lack of stock was hampering its short-term ability to improve sales."   It was saved from collapse when it agreed in March to sell is fitness clubs business.                 Link to article

working capital

sales

distressed sale

     
02/07/2009 3 Breakingviews.com reported Sungard has extended the maturity of $2.5bn of its junk debt by 3 years, at a cost of an additional 1.9% interest pa, plus 0.25% fee. $460bn of US junk debt is to mature between 2011-14.     Link to article

junk debt

refinance risk

     
01/07/2009 2 The Times reported shares in Yell fell 15% as it announced revenues in Q3 would be lower than expected.  The drop in earnings would bring it close to breaching its covenants.               Link to article

share value

debt covenants

     
01/07/2009 1 The FT reported that across the board, banks are raising their fees, spreads over LIBOR, and fees levied on unused borrowing facilities.  This is in response to: lack of credit in the market, pressure on their own balance sheets, and credit risk.  As an example, Lookers paid 10% over LIBOR on its refinanced debt, was obliged to suspend divs, and had controls put on Capex spending.  Yell was forced to renegotiate its debt because its equity value and profitability were so bad (debt: £4.3bn vs equity £230m, and pre-tax loss of £1bn; its share price has fallen from £6 in 2007 to £0.27) so it could not raise more to repay its debt.

bank debt

margin

funding