| News Jan-Jun 2009 | ||||
copyright ACF 2009
Date |
News (Jul-Dec 2009) |
Subject |
| 31 /12/2009 | 135 The NY Times reported on the hiring of a senior former US Treasury employee by PIMCO, apparently to take advantage of his government inside knowledge and connections. Link to article |
ethics |
| 30 /12/2009 | 134 The WS Jnl reported on the problem facing EU countries (high debt vs GDP and their relative cost of debt vs Bunds) and its continuation in 2010. Link to article |
EU govt debt economy |
| 30 /12/2009 | 133 The WS Jnl reported Korea's falling imports will continue to generate a current acct surplus, thereby stimulating an appreciation of the Won. Link to article |
current account currency |
| 29/12/2009 | 133 The NY Times reported Morgan Stanley is to be sued for misleading an investor in a CDO it sold, and shorted, i.e., had bet it would fail, which it did. See also News 23 Dec 09 Link to article |
moral hazard CDO |
| 28/12/2009 | 132 The NY Times reported the Fed is considering ofering banks CDs to tie-up banks' cash reserves and thereby prevent inflation risk caused by too much bank funds being used to provide credit Link to article |
inflation bank reserves |
| 28/12/2009 | 131 The Times reported PE group that owns Brit Car Auctions, has sold it to another PE group. Interestingly, all other bidders were PE groups. Perhaps this supports the views expressed in 6 Oct News that PE groups churn deals to get their fees and not to create economic value for their investors Link to article |
private equity fees PE |
| 27/12/2009 | 130a The Times lists wealthy british eco-entrepreneurs rich list . Link to article |
entrepreneurs |
| 27/12/2009 | 130 The NY Times reported China has said it will not appreciate its Yuan, and will continue to peg it to the USD (which it did from mid-2008). It has therefore depreciated vs currencies of its trading partners. China claimed tariffs on its exports and external pressure to appreciate its currency, were measures aimed at containing China's strong economic development. The US has said China's currency policy might amount to a subsidy of its exports and so justify the use of import tariffs on China's exports. Link to article |
currency peg tarriffs exports |
| 26/12/2009 | 129b The Times summarised countries' defining news in 2009. Link to article |
economies |
| 26/12/2009 | 129a The NY Times reported on some odd indicators of the state of the economy-such as men's underwear sales and grow-your-own food gardening. Some might be poor indicators. Link to article |
economic indicators |
| 23/12/2009 | 129 The NY Times reported on the creation and then short sale by G Sachs, hedge funds,and other investment banks of MBS these investment banks had sold to investors who (by being long) took the opposite view on the mtg market. Creation and short-sale created a conflict of interest, which netted the banks and hedge funds $ billions when the mortgage market and the associated MBS subsequently collapsed in value. Link to article |
moral hazard short-sales MBS
|
| 19/12/2009 | 128 The Times reported iCap USA had 'engaged in deceptive broking activity', i.e., it fictitiously displayed thousands of trades to attract customers to trade with it. It was fined $25m by the SEC as a result. |
moral hazard |
| 19/12/2009 | 127 Breakingviews.com illustrates the uncertainty (risk) investors face in valuing the future revenue of a project, and possibly being too optimistic and thereby over-paying. Link to article |
valuation |
| 19/12/2009 | 126 Breakingviews.com illustrates the contrast in value saved and lost mostly through timing acquisitions relative to the market price. Exxon seems to have timed its acquisition well below the peak whereas Conoco bought at the peak, each massively affecting their values subsequently. Link to article |
M&A valuation |
| 18/12/2009 | 125 The NY Times reported on a misery index highlighting those countries whose govts are unable to spend because of their budget deficits yet their country's unemployment rate is rising. It also highlights the mistake of ignoring the consequences of asset inflation. Link to article |
budget deficits misery index |
| 18/12/2009 | 124 The NY Times reported the bank of Japan has left its official rate at 0.1% to combat deflation - which has plagued Japan for the last decade -and to avoid it falling into recession. Bond prices surged on the possibility of the govt buying bonds. Link to article |
deflation bond prices |
| 17/12/2009 | 123 The NY Times reported the SEC has fined Ernst & Young $8.5m for breaching auditing standards involving one of its auditing clients and thereby failing in its duty to to the public. Link to article |
audit moral hazard |
| 17/12/2009 | 122 The Times reported Toronto Dominion bank has been fined heavily (£7m) by the FSA for a repeat offence, this time relating to inadequate controls on valuing trading positions. Link to article |
operational risk |
| 16/12/2009 | 121 The NY Times reported on bills that would re-instate the Glass-Steagall Act and split banks' activities. |
Glass-Steagall |
| 16/12/2009 | 120 The NY Times reported on debt collection problems faced by small businesses, and their recourse. |
credit risk SMEs |
| 16/12/2009 | 119 The NY Times reported Credit Suisse was fined over $500m for facilitating Iranian money transfers. Lloyds was fined $350m in Jan for a similar offence involving Iran, Libya, and Sudan Link to article |
moral hazard banks |
| 14/12/2009 | 118 The NY Times reported on the Greek PM's strategy to reduce its budget deficit, including severe govt cutbacks, and a 90% tax on bank bonuses. Link to article |
budget deficit economy |
| 14/12/2009 | 117 The Times reported on the risks many european governments face of credit downgrade owing to high debt and budget deficits in relation to their GDP, leading to marked rises in interest costs Link to article |
budgets credit rating |
| 13/12/2009 | 116 The Times reported on the extortionate fees (billions) charged by insolvency practitioners leaving unsecured creditors with little if any value from administration proceedings. Link to article |
insolvency fees |
| 13/12/2009 | 115 The Times reported the BoE is making billions in profits from its bank bailouts, SLS, and its Quant. Easing (owing to the positive carry on the Gilts it is buying and funding at just 0.5%pa). Link to article |
bank bailouts quant easing |
| 13/12/2009 | 114 The Times reported on the events prior to and after Terra Firma's disasterous acquisition of EMI and its funding by Citibank, for which Citi got £92.5m in fees. Link to article |
private equity |
| 12/12/2009 | 113c The FT reported pre-financial crisis covenants are creeping back into debt issues because of the increased investor demand for bonds. They cite, PIKs, or covs that are not reinserted on docs if a company is downgraded but had previously been upgraded. Moody's' snr covenants officer, Alex Dill, notes: "when managers have room to make a decision, their primary duty is to equity holders, not bond holders". Moody's cites a 7 year $500m bond of Compofrio Foods with minimal covenant protection, yet it was over-subscribed 5x. The bond allows the company to reclassify its debt to flatter its covenant ratios and maximise its gearing ratio. |
covenants cov lite bonds |
| 11/12/2009 | 113b The FT reported research by Partners Group shows the median enterprise value of private equity buy out deals fell from $2bn to $0.3bn, and gearing fell from 9x to 6.5x, when comparing the period 2005-08 to H1 2009. However, RoI rose to 28% from 22%, and is to come from operational improvements rather than from growth. |
private equity buy outs gearing |
| 07/12/2009 | 113a Morningstar.com reported on a debate by Wharton bus school professors on the culprits of the financial crisis. Link to article |
financial crisis |
| 07/12/2009 | 113 The NY Times reported on lack of drive by the US govt to reform the operating model of rating agencies - who have been blaimed for the financial crisis. Link to article |
rating agencies |
| 06/12/2009 | 112 The NY Times reported on soveriegn wealth funds making fat gains from investments in banks in crisis, but some have fared less well. Link to article |
sovereign wealth funds |
| 03/12/2009 | 111 The NY Times reported Rusal will restructure its $7.4bn debt mountain on terms that allow it to pay banks 'when it can' over 4 years, i.e., based on its perfromance and on the price of aluminium; missed payments will be capitalised. Link to article |
debt restructuring 'pay when you can' |
| 28/11/2009 | 110 The NY Times reported the % of loans distressed has risen from 1.5% to 8.7% y/y for hotels (almost 2 times the level in commercial property and retail sectors), illustrating the dire straits of this sector. |
distressed loans |
| 26/11/2009 | 109 The NY Times reported the Yen is at a 14-year high vs the USD, raising concerns on its exports and delay its exit from recession, and lost sales to the Chinese whose curency is pegged to the $. Link to article |
currency risk exports |
| 26/11/2009 | 108 CityAM reported the UK govt is to implement in full the Walker report on corporate governance and exec pay. Read the ket recommendations here: Link to article |
corporate governance Walker report |
| 26/11/2009 | 107 CityAM reported the Dubai govt's investment company, Dubai World, asked for a 6mth moratorium on debt repayment, sending the cost of insuring Dubai's sovereign debt upwards and above that of iceland! Rating agencies might consider the plan a default. The Times reported that the news knocked £14bn off the value of UK banks who might have lent to Dubai. Link to article Link to article |
moratorium default soveriegn debt |
| 25/11/2009 | 106c The NY Times reported Vietnam has devalued its currency by 5% to align it with the black market exchange rate and so instil confidence in the official exzch rate. It also raised interest rates to stem inflation and the supply of credit (thereby stifling further rapid growth of asset prices). Link to article |
Vietnam devaluation monetary policy |
| 25/11/2009 | 106b CityAM reported Lloyds bank is to issue £13.5bn in the biggest ever rights issue. Advisers are estimated to get £350m from the deal. Lloyds is also issuing £8.5bn in CoCo bonds. Link to article |
rights issue CoCo bonds |
| 25/11/2009 | 106a CityAM reported Chinese banks that have been encouraged by the govt (to stimulate the economy) have thereby lowered their cap adequacy ratios below 9% from 10%, and must raise equity capital to restore their ratios before further loans can be made. Link to article |
capital adequacy China banks |
| 24/11/2009 | 106 The NY Times reported Russia has lowered its repo rate on central bank loans to 8% to discourage foreign speculation on the ruble (which has appreciated rapidly) and to encourage bank lending to stimulate the economy. Link to article |
currency risk interest rates |
| 24/11/2009 | 106 The Times reported the FSA has fined Nomura £1.75m for “fundamental and systemic control failings” which enbled a trader to mis-state the value of equity derivative trades. Nomura had to make a negative value adjustment of £11m when the mis-statements were discovered. Link to article |
operational risk FSA |
| 22/11/2009 | 105a The Times reported bookseller, Borders, is close to administration owing to reduced credit insurance (preventing it getting book supplies) and funds, and greater competition. Link to article |
credit insurance finacial distress |
| 20/11/2009 | 105 The NY Times reported the UK corporate bond sector is undeveloped and so heavily reliant on bank credit. Troubled banks will reduce corporate lending over the next 2 years so denying them needed credit, leading to a double-dip recession or stagnation. Link to article |
UK bond mkt bank debt recession |
| 20/11/2009 | 104 The NY Times reported 5 investment funds in Ohio are to sue rating agencies because of false and misleading ratings on MBS that cost the funds $457m. |
rating agencies |
| 20/11/2009 | 103 The BoE reported in its Nov Trends in Lending report that corporate costs of bank finance have increased markedly over the year, largely due to increased bank fees charged. Also, some banks have attributed the widening of spreads on loans to corporates to banks' own costs of long term financing rising and because they say it's harder to raise long-term bank finance. |
bank debt spreads bank fees |
| 18/11/2009 | 102 The NY Times reported US bank regulators admit they were too lax in their regulation of banks that subsequently failed. Link to article |
banks regulation |
| 17/11/2009 | 101a The Evening Standard reported AIM has fined Regal Petroleum, advised by broker, Evolution, £600K for statements it made (regarding an oil project) that were misleading, inaccurate and consistently over-optimistic, but which saw its share price at the time rise to over £5 but then crash when the oil wells were found to be dry. Another case of corporate management sleaze to line their pockets |
ethics |
| 16/11/2009 | 101 The NY Times reported the Fed chairman said the continued reluctance of banks to lend would probably slow economic recovery next year. Link to article |
bank debt economic growth |
| 16/11/2009 | 100 The Times reported the case of a SME which paid a 1/3 of its loan in fees to obtain a bank loan using the govt's EFG scheme, illustrating the high cost of bank finance. Link to article |
SME fees |
| 16/11/2009 | 99 The Times reported more SMEs are finding it difficult to obtain credit, despite govt attempts with QE to provide credit. However, almost 2/3 said their biggest barrier to growth over the next year was a lack of consumer demand, followed by finance, regulation, exchange rates and input costs. Link to article |
SME growth finance |
| 13/11/2009 | 98 The Times reported KKR is to list its discount retailer, Dollar General, in an $8bn IPO to pay down debt and pay $68m to its underwriters (G Sachs and KKR). The move illustrates the PE & LBO model. Link to article |
IPO Fees |
| 13/11/2009 | 97 The Times reported the NAPFM, who hold 13% of stock market, has written again to FTSE 350 chairmen to restrain pay of its high earners and review compensation culture. Pension funds were accused on being absentee landlords in the run up to the financial crisis. Link to article Link to article |
fiduciary duty compensation |
| 13/11/2009 | 96 The Times reported the FSA is to investigate potentially misleading reporting by HBOS of the true state of its loan book at the time of its capital raisings in 2008, because the scale of write-offs only emerged after its merger with Lloyds. Link to article |
fiduciary duty prospectus ethics |
| 13/11/2009 | 95 The Times reported BA is to merge with Iberia, both of which have lost £100s of millions in 6mths of 2009. The main benefit of merging will be economies of scale on supplies such as fuel, aircraft. BA has a pension deficit of £2.6bn, the same as BA's value. Link to article |
economies of scale pension deficit |
| 12/11/2009 | 94 The Times reported Intel and AMD have agreed Intel will pay AMD $1.25bn to settle AMD's legal claims against Intel for abusive competition practices. Intel was fined $1.45bn by the EC this year and a NY federal lawsuit for the same reason. Link to article |
market abuse competition |
| 12/11/2009 | 94 The Times reported the OFT is to investigate the relatively high cost of insolvency in the UK, including insolvency fees. There is concern that creditors are not getting a fair deal. From comments, insolvency practitioners are vultures charging extortionate fees leaving creditors short. Link to article |
insolvency fees |
| 10/11/2009 | 93 The Times reported the £ rose owing to the depreciation of the $ because G20 leaders did not signal support for the $. Commodities, incl. gold, rose as a result (they are priced in $). |
currency risk |
| 11/11/2009 | 92a The NY Times reported on the exposure of banks that have lent heavily to shipping companies facing a recession in cargo shipping, and whose security (the ships) have fallen in value from less trade and from an oversupply of vessels (old and new ones). One bank has lent 7x its equity as shipping loans! Link to article |
security shipping loans credit risk |
| 10/11/2009 | 92 The Times reported the UK trade deficit rose unexpectedly owing to a massive rise in car imports (a side-effect of the scrappage scheme) (despite the depreciated £), and oil imports. GBP's depreciation should have narrowed the deficit in recent months. Link to article |
trade deficit imports oil |
| 09/11/2009 | 91c CityAM reported 120 US banks have failed in 2009, versus 25 in 2008 and just 3 in 2007, illustrating the severity of the banking crisis and/or the lax regulation in the US in the run up to the crisis. Link to article |
bank failures regulation |
| 09/11/2009 | 91b CityAM reported casino operator, Vegas Sands, is to list its Macau division on the HK Stock Exchange to "boost the value of the company's overall business". The HK IPO is also to take advantage of an IPO window of opportunity to raise funds. Link to article |
IPO listing window |
| 09/11/2009 | 91a CityAM reported only 21% of SMEs ever used a bank loan. 50% used an overdraft. They also used: business (68%) and personal (59%) credit cards, personal loans (50%), and equity (21%) from friends and family. It found 1/3 of bank loan apps failed. Link to article |
SME debt funding |
| 09/11/2009 | 91 The Times reported 3 brokers are being forced out from companies' rights issues by RBS and Lloyds who force the companies they lend to instead use their broking and investment banking services or face losing credit lines. The brokers have complained to the City minister. Link to article |
investment banking ethics broking |
| 06/11/2009 | 90 The Times reported the FSA has fined UBS for poor operational controls that allowed employees to use client money for unauthorised trading and be able to conceal their losses. UBS compensated affected clients £26m. Link to article |
operational risk controls FSA |
| 06/11/2009 | 89 The Times reported the BoE has injected a further £25bn by QE. It said a lack of credit constrained economic growth. the UK economy is the only major economy still in a recession. Inflation is unlikely to rise significantly however owing to substantial spare capacity in the economy. Link to article |
QE Inflation lack of credit |
| 06/11/2009 | 88 The Times reported manufacturers' input prices rose owing to higher oil costs and the depreciated £ making imports more expensive. Output prices also rose, stoking inflation. Link to article |
input costs inflation currency risk |
| 06/11/2009 | 87 The NY Times reported IPO market in Asia has waned as investors fear economic prospects and falling markets, plus perhaps a glut of IPOs recently. Those IPOs in pipeline have to reprice downwards or pull entirely. It illustrates the fickleness of markets. Link to article |
IPOs |
| 06/11/2009 | 86 The NY Times reported Blackberry maker, RIM, has decided to spend upto $1.2bn buying back its shares which it believes are undervalued. The market price moved just 0.3% indicating the market did not agree. Link to article |
share buy-back |
| 03/11/2009 | 85 The Times reported the Australian central bank has raised rates by 0.25%, citing strong growth in the economies of its trading partners, and its own, so that it could now look to ease off the monetary stimulus and seek instead to curb inflation risk by raising its official interest rates. Link to article |
inflation monetary stimulus economic growth |
| 03/11/2009 | 84 The Times reported Ford was affected by the 'sustained and severe' depreciation of £ versus € and offset this by raising UK sale prices. It imports car parts from the continent into the UK, thereby raising production costs. Link to article |
currency risk |
| 02/11/2009 | 83 The Times reports on a comparison of the perfomance of the PE model versus other business ownership models, in the retail sector. Link to article |
PE groups retail |
| 02/11/2009 | 82 The Times reports on other countries' strategies to grow their economies and how the UK is lagging behind. Link to article |
economy recession UK performance |
| 26/10/2009 | 81 The Times reported Yell will pay upto an extra 1% in interest if its syndicate of 200+ banks agree to extend the maturity date of the bulk of its £3.8bn debt until 2014. So far they have failed to reach agreement to the restructuring, for which 95% must agree (surprise, surprise). It plans to raise £500m through a right issue to repay part of the remaining debt but its share price has fallen 10% on news of the disagreement. |
interest debt gearing rights issue syndicated debt |
| 26/10/2009 | 80 The NY Times reported ING is to raise $11bn to repurchase shares issued to the Dutch govt under the bank's bailout. It will pay a 15% premium to do so (upto $1.4bn), far less than the 50% premium if it had delayed. It has also paid almost $2bn to the govt for backing its risky assets. The bank has also decided to split its banking and insurance divisions and sell the latter, despite the combination providing advantages of scale, capital efficiency and earnings from a diversified portfolio of businesses. All this illustrates the destruction of shareholder value. Link to article |
bank failure bailout economies diversification |
| 25/10/2009 | 79a The FT reported on a plan by large investment managers such as Std Life, M&G, Legal & General and Aegon to bypass investment banks and thereby save fees paid to them for rights issues which have risen and are now considered unfair. Link to article Link to article |
rights issues bank fees disintermedn |
| 25/10/2009 | 79 The NY Times reported the case of a company trying to recover a loan on a securitised residential mortgage by possessing the property, but it failed in court because it could not prove ownership of the mortgage due to lax assignment of the mortgage and property during their securitisation, and the $400,000 loan has been wiped off. It illustrates the importance of careful and proper documentation at each step of a securitisation. Not entirely good news for the home occupier because the property has no clear title so will be difficult to refinance or sell. Link to article |
securitisation possession title administration |
| 20/10/2009 | 78 The Times reported Brazil's currency has appreciated by inflows of foreign capital, and it has levied a 2% tax to keep speculative capital (hot money) - capital that invests in stocks and bonds, out of the country. The country's stock index has risen 79% and it currenyc, 33% against the $, this year. Link to article |
hot money foreign capital currency risk |
| 14/10/2009 | 77 The Times reported ITV's convertible bond was 10x over-subscribed and it was raised from £100m to £135m to meet demand, and it was able to improve its terms and offer 4% instead of potentially 4.75% and a conversion premium of 40% not the 37% expected. The share price rose 7%. Also see 13 Oct Link to article |
convertible debt conversion premium |
| 13/10/2009 | 76 The NY Times reported the EU is to impose anti-dumping import duties on imports of shoes from China and Vietnam on the grounds their governments were unfairly subsidising their shoemakers, and to appease European shoemakers and retailers. One lobby group said its members had paid around $400m pa in such import duties. Link to article |
anti-dumping imports protectionism |
| 13/10/2009 | 75 The NY Times reported India's currency has appreciated 11% since March as foreign direct investment soars (and so the Indian rupee); the possibility of the government raising interest rates to curb inflation could appreciate it further. The appreciation has already affected exporters. Illustrating the foreign demand for Indian assets, companies are raising $billions through stocks and bonds, and Oil India's IPO was 31x oversubscribed. The foreign inflows could easily go elsewhere and there is also the risk that they will create asset price bubbles. Link to article |
asset bubbles inflation currency risk foreign investment IPO |
| 13/10/2009 | 74 The NY Times reported China has become a dominant exporter to the disadvantage of many other exporting countries, helped by its relatively weak currency that it has pegged to the weak USD. The article claims the US government is not being critical of China to ensure it continues to buy US govt. debt. China has encouraged exports also by offering exporters tax credits and subsidised loans, and can reduce migrant workers' wages to match demands from foreign buyers to lower prices. Link to article |
currency risk exports US govt debt |
| 13/10/2009 | 73 The Times reported retailer, JJB Sports, is to undertake a £100m rights issue that will incur £6m in expenses, and reduce reliance on supplier credit and increase operational flexibility. The share price rose, presumably because it strengthens the company's viability. Half of the shares have been placed prior to their issue in a 'firm placing' Link to article |
rights issue firm placing fees |
| 13/10/2009 | 72 The Times reported £ depreciated after inflation figures were lower tnan expected (to 1.1%pa), prompting fears that interest rates would stay low until 2011. The increase in money supply is unlikely to fuel inflation for some time owing to dire conditions, but at some point it could rise strongly Link to article |
inflation money supply exchange rate |
| 13/10/2009 | 71 The Times reported ITV is to issue a convertible bond at 4.75% convertible in 7 years and at a 37% premium on the current share price. It will also transfer its business, SDN, to its pension fund to plug its deficit, possibly because it could not sell it. Also see News 14 Oct Link to article |
convertible bond pension deficit |
| 12/10/2009 | 70 The Times reported the government is to sell of £16bn of assets including central and local government properties, the channel tunnel, and uranium mining assets, to pay off the government deficit. £13bn is also to come from tax rises. Link to article |
government debt asset sales |
| 06/10/2009 | 69 The NY Times reported on the extraction of cash by PE firms using a dividend recapitalisation. It also reveals how PE firms get fat quickly (getting their 2%) just by doing deals. Link to article Link to article |
dividend recapitalisation |
| 28/09/2009 | 68 The NY Times reported on the use of gold as collateral by Indians seeking loans, albeit at high interest rates, because conventional bank loans are unavailable. Link to article |
gold pawn broking |
| 28/09/2009 | 67 The NY Times reported on the strength of the Yen versus the USD and its cause and effect on Japanese exports and imports. Link to article |
exchange rate |
| 24/09/2009 | 66 The Times reported comments by the BoE Governor that GBP's depreciation is good for exports, caused GBP to decline farther; it has depreciated almost 25% over 2 years against major currencies. Link to article |
exports exchange rate |
| 24/09/2009 | 65 The Times reported JJB Sports saw its losses rise 230% and sales fall over 20%, over 6 mths, mostly because of stock shortages. Its auditor has warned of the adverse effect on covenants and cashflow if forecasting assumptions change just a little. Link to article |
forecasting stock cashflow |
| 15/09/2009 | 64 The Times reported Blockbuster video is to close upto 960 stores to reduce costs and keep its lenders happy. It estimates annual savings of $30m as a result, but upto $60m in lease termination costs. Also, it placed privately upto $340m of senior secured debt due 2014. Link to article |
private placement leases cashflow |
| 15/09/2009 | 63 The Times reported banks bailed out with UK government (taxpayers') funds are being told by regulators to withhold coupon payments on bonds, thereby lowering their price (value). The regulator's justification is that bondholders should share the burden of financial distress of banks that otherwise would have collapsed. The UK's ABI has threatened that investors could revolt. Link to article Link to article |
bonds coupons value bank bailout |
| 15/09/2009 | 62 The Times reported Lehman's liquidator is claiming $8bn from Barclays on the grounds Lehman assets sold to Barclays were under-valued deliberately by Lehman staff so they could get jobs at Barclays post-sale. Barclays says the liquidator is being opportunistic now the economy is stabilising (meaning asset values will not fall so any revaluation is only going to increase, limiting downside risk for the liquidator). Barclays does not appear to have denied the allegation. Link to article |
ethics valuation |
| 14/09/2009 | 61a The Times reported the US has raised its tariff on Chinese tyre imports to 35% in an act of protectionism and after US unions claimed imports had risen 3-fold in 5 years and cost %k jobs. The Chinese claim the act would cost $1bn and upto 100K chinese jobs. The US has also imposed tariffs on Chines pipe imports. |
protectionism |
| 11/09/2009 | 61 The NY Times reported Ikea Russia had thwarted attempts by its Russian electricity supplier by renting power generators instead, only to find that the rental company had been siphoning off Ikea cash by charging exorbitant rents that were approved by a Russian Ikea employee who had been bribed! Link to article |
corruption |
| 08/09/2009 | 60 Breakingviews.com reported on the synergistic value created by Kraft's proposed takeover of Cadbury's, and the loss of it by paying a premium over the pre-announcement share price, so that any further premium would destroy's Kraft's value Link to article |
M&A valuation |
| 08/09/2009 | 59 The Times reported gold has broken through $1000 per oz owing to reduced supply from governments, its purchase as a hedge against expected inflation as economies recover, and a weaker USD. On the other hand, demand for gold jewellery is at a 5-yr low because of the recession. Link to article |
inflation hedge gold recession |
| 07/09/2009 | 58 The NY Times reported on Buffet's mistakes, including buying into Irish banks as their economy faltered, an energy company at the height of the oil price, not selling shares at their peak before the collapse, and not seeing the housing bubble burst. Link to article |
Buffet investment |
| 07/09/2009 | 57 Breakingviews.com reported on the issue by casino operator, Sands, of pre-IPO bonds convertible into shares at a 10% discount to the IPO price, and paid a 9% coupon until conversion. The risk is the IPO fails and they hold illiquid convertible debt, though the coupon then rises. Sand is in trouble and paid an additional 2.25% in interest to relax debt covenants. Link to article |
debt covenants convertibles IPO |
| 07/09/2009 | 56 Breakingviews.com reported on the loss of hedge funds' prime-broker business by large US banks (owing to their perceived credit risk) to other players who have gained a foothold. Link to article |
prime broking credit risk |
| 06/09/2009 | 55 The New York Times reported on US political interests determining the relative priority of natural gas and coals. Link to article |
politics commodities |
| 05/09/2009 | 54 The New York Times reported on plans to securitise life policies bought by investors from holders who settle for cash. Investors continue to pay on the hope of a payout when the seller passes on. Concern has been expressed it will lead to the same problems of the sub-prime meltdown - greedy rating agencies, brokers, and bankers. Link to article |
securitisation ethics |
| 30/08/2009 | 53 The New York Times reported the US Treasury paid an avg of 34% more than the market price for its pref shares and equity warrants, to bailout banks, a shortfall of $78bn for TARP purchases in 2008 according to the COP's Feb 09 report. The report also noted Berkshire Hathaway and Arabians got 110% and 123% of what each paid for investing in Goldman Sachs & Barclays respectively. Link to article |
valuation fair price TARP |
| 30/08/2009 | 52 The Times reported total fees to sort out the claims of Lehman's liquidation could net $4bn for the 2000 involved. Link to article |
Lehman liquidation |
| 29/08/2009 | 51 The Times reported champagne merchants are forcing producers to cut back production to maintain higher champagne prices - more than producers are willing to. The market manipulation mimics that of oil cartels such as OPEC on the price of oil. Reduced consumer demand and destocking by distributors have meant producers holding greater stock than normal. Link to article |
market manipulation champagne pricing |
| 26/08/2009 | 50 The New York Times reported the risk homebuyers took by opting to pay low interest initially and more later by betting they could sell their home at a higher price (or at least at the purchase price) before the higher rate started. With the collapse, they are facing significant rises in interest. 80% of such mortgages written in 2007 are expected to default. Link to article |
market risk interest rate risk option ARMS |
| 26/08/2009 | 49 The New York Times reported the price of solar panels has fallen as demand falls and supply of panels increases. However, manufacturers are not suffering as the lower prices are attracting a wider pool of consumers to buy the panels. Link to article |
pricing demand market size |
| 23/08/2009 | 48 The Times reported the UK govt's corpn tax receipt has fallen almost 40% y/y, and VAT receipts for Jul fell £3.6bn versus Jul 2008. Rising unemployment is likely to reduce income tax and NI. Calls to raise taxes and cut public spending have been raised. The fall in tax receipts is 300% worse than the Chancellor had forecast for the 2009 budget. Link to article |
forecasting taxation economy |
| 21/08/2009 | 47 The Times reported energy suppliers are forcing small companies to pay for energy upto 7 mths in advance, seeking deposits, or allowing just 5 days to pay bills - in case they become insolvent, and also because trade credit insurers who would pay bills of insolvent companies, are now rejecting 60% of credit insurance applications vs 5% 2 years ago. Link to article |
credit risk cashflow utilities |
| 20/08/2009 | 46 The New York Times reported on the rise of US bank failures in recent years, not through ignorantly buying complex securities and derivatives, but through the triumph of asset growth over risk management. Link to article |
asset growth bank loans credit risk |
| 20/08/2009 | 45 The New York Times reported the Swiss government has made a 32% annualised return ($1.1bn) from selling its bailout stake in UBS. Other european governments are having to saty put owing to lingering problems with their banks (e.g., RBS). $7 trillion was allocated to bailing out banks in 11 countries. |
bank bailouts |
| 20/08/2009 | 44 The New York Times reported the price of natural gas has fallen from $13 in 2008 to under $3, owing to a glut in supply and fall in use owing to the depresssed economy. Stronger producers could take over weaker ones. It's good news however for many business consumers who might have failed otherwise Link to article |
commodity risk economy |
| 14/08/2009 | 43 The Times reported Germany & France have reversed their negative GDPs and are both growing. This has been fuelled by consumer & public spending, and lower trade imports. UK GDP by contrast contracted and can't rely on heavily indebted consumers to spend, and a weakened banking sector Link to article |
GDP economies consumer debt |
| 07/08/2009 | 42 The FT reported flash trading (which allows traders with super-fast computers to gain an unfair trading advantage by seeing trade orders fractionally sooner than other traders, and then using this information to place their own orders), is to be stopped on certain exchanges, after the SEC raised concerns. |
transparency flash trading |
| 05/08/2009 | 41 The FT reported UK FTSE100 companies pension deficits ballooned to £96bn in July 09, double that of Jul 2008, owing to cuts in discount rates used to value liabilities. |
pension values discount rates |
| 04/08/2009 | 40 The FT reported retail investors have taken and average of 20% of corporate bond issues, up from 3%, in recent years. Institutional investors are inclined to invest in primary issues therefore, knowing retail demand will support or raise primary prices in the secondary market. The number of corporate bonds in retail-sized denominations, has risen 26% in 2008 to 44% in 2009 (ytd) |
retail bonds pricing |
| 04/08/2009 | 39 The FT reported sugar prices rose to a 25-year high because of India's poor sugar crop following its poor monsoon, and it's likely to tap the global sugar markets (it's the biggest consumer of sugar). Prices have risen 60% since Jan and 100% in the last year. The Indian govt has allowed duty-free imports and imports by NGOs |
commodity risk tariffs |
| 04/08/2009 | 38 The FT reported the TED spread fell to its lowest margin in 2 years (to 29bp from 464bp on Oct 2008), indicating reduced financial stress. A sign of investors returning to risk is the rise in secondary price of european leveraged loans to 89% of face (the highest since Jul 2008), and will support primary issue prices |
TED spread risk appetite lev loans |
| 31/07/2009 | 37 The New York Times reported the Indian stock market has rallied as domestic and foreign investors re-enter the market on the expectation of economic recovery ahead of western economies, spurring IPO and private placement activity by issuers, and at prices far lower than 2007 & 2008. Link to article |
IPOs private placement equity market |
| 31/07/2009 | 36 The New York Times reported UBS paid $780m in Feb to settle charges that it helped US citizens evade tax on $20bn held offshore. |
moral hazard tax evasion |
| 30/07/2009 | 35 The New York Times reported insurer Capco, set up by Wall St banks might not have sufficient resources to meet Lehman-related bankruptcy claims, and banks are now insuring via Lloyds. Link to article |
captive insurance |
| 30/07/2009 | 34 The New York Times reported banks paid 5000 of its staff over $1m each in bonuses in 2008 despite the banks being bailed out with taxpayers' money. Link to article |
moral hazard bonuses |
| 29/07/2009 | 33 The New York Times reported of the tactics of residential mortgage lenders to deliberately prolong time in arrears so they can claim various kinds of related fees, and to stall loan arrangements. Link to article |
moral hazard |
| 29/07/2009 | 32 Structuredfinancenews.com reported the credit rating of insurer, Ambac, has been cut to junk status (CC) on the basis its surplus over its liabilities could be wiped out by losses on RMBS it insures. It is in run-off mode. Losses relate to rising fwd LIBOR increasing its cash outflows, and a deterioration in the collateral in its CDOs. Link to article Link to article | monoline insurance credit risk cashflow forecasting |
| 27/07/2009 | 31 The FT reported US pension fund, CALPERS, has bought back shopping malls for $1.7bn, $1bn LESS than it sold them 4 years ago. However, its own portfolio has also shown its steepest decline in its 80-year history. | property valuation |
| 27/07/2009 | 30 The FT reported emerging market bond issuance has risen 45% compared to the same period in 2007 before the financial crisis, indicating a move to riskier assets by investors. In the UK a similar shift has been illustrated by the shift out of national savings by investors. | bonds risk |
| 27/07/2009 | 29 The Times reported the commercial property sector can only absorb £20bn of refinancing a year, far short of the £150bn of commercial debt to be refinanced in the next 2-3 years. A similar funding shortfall will occur in the US market. Values in the UK have fallen 40% in 2 years, and globally rents fell the steepest on record, sapping market confidence. Link to article |
valuation funding gap confidence |
| 27/07/2009 | 28 The Times reported can maker, Rexam, saw its share price fall 10% on fears it would issue equity to stave off a credit downgrade to junk status. Junk status would add substantially to its interest costs. Shares had risen 18% since June, partly from refinancing its debt. Link to article | rights issue credit rating interest cost |
| 26/07/2009 | 27 The Times reported oil companies BG, Shell & BP will together lose over $10bn in profits y/y owing to reduced demand for and fall in price of, oil. Link to article | oil revenue demand |
| 26/07/2009 | 26a The Times reported foreign banks are re-entering the UK residential mortgage market, filling a gap left by reluctant UK banks. Link to article | mortgages bank loans |
| 24/07/2009 | 26 BreakingViews.com reported the european IPO market might take off again as investors' risk appetite returns. A brake on the market's revival is (it's thought), valuation (as it is in property markets). |
valuation IPO |
| 23/07/2009 | 25 The Times reported pharmaceutical company, GSK, will generate around £2bn in revenue from swine flu drugs over the next 2 years and would likely make a profit, but it has spent £ billions over 14 years preparing for a flu pandemic.. Link to article | revenue drug prodn pandemic |
| 23/07/2009 | 24 Growthbusiness.co.uk reported the UK has twice as many companies struggling to pay off creditors than Germany or Italy, and 4 times as many as France. Part of the reason is the UK's indulgence with LBOs (it did the most in Europe) and cov-lite loans that have created the living-dead companies. Link to article | cov-lite LBOs creditors |
| 21/07/2009 | 23 The New York Times the Fed chairman did not feel inflation was a risk - if a burst of consumer demand did arise - with so much money being pumped into the economy by the Fed and its decision to keep interest rates low, because of ample unused production capacity, high unemployment, and the Fed's ability to remove liquidity from the system. Link to article | economics interest rates |
| 21/07/2009 | 22 Growthbusiness.co.uk reported the risk of a depreciation of £, thought to be overvalued, would result in inflation. A danger of deflation would suggest traders keep less stock but if inflation rises, higher stock levels is the better strategy. Link to article | stock levels inflation deflation |
| 15/07/2009 | 21 The New York Times reported Calpers, the US's largest pension fund, is suing the 3 US rating agencies for negligent misrepresentation, and inaccurate ratings. The fund lost $1bn on SIVs, which the agencies helped to structure and earned fees upto $1m for, on top of rating fees. No mention of whether the fund failed in its own duty of care and risk assessment before investing. Link to article | conflict of interest rating agency SIVs |
| 14/07/2009 | 20 The New York Times reported the German govt is delaying a tax-payer bailout of its relatively under-capitalised and bad-asset banking system, until after its election. This is expected to delay its recovery from the crisis. As in the UK, banks have cutback on longer-term loans (33% lower y/y) Link to article | politics capital adequacy bank debt |
| 14/07/2009 | 19 The Times reported shares in C&C fell 16% after it announced a downward correction in its revenue figures. It claimed the error was due to incompetence. Share buyers could claim compensation owing to a false market being created for the shares. Link to article | operational risk reputation risk |
| 14/07/2009 | 18 The Times reported airline, BA, has depended substantially on premium travellers, and their exodus could take 5 years to recover. First and business class volumes have fallen 15% versus 1% for economy, suggesting more execs are flying economy. A study found 70% companies have cut their travel budget and 48% thought reduced business travel would not hurt their business. Link to article | revenue strategy |
| 13/07/2009 | 17 Marketwatch.com reported the S Korean Won fell 2.4% against the USD on news Sth Korea's political leader had cancer. Link to article | politics currency risk |
| 13/07/2009 | 16 The Times reported sports shirt maker, Canterbury Europe, has gone into administration owing to a failed move into other sports, GBP's depreciation raising Far East import costs, and difficult trading. Link to article | strategy currency risk |
| 12/07/2009 | 15 The Times reported Terra Firma (TF) has asked Citigroup to write off £500m it lent to EMI in return for TF injecting £250m. TF has written off half its equity in EMI. Citi was left holding the whole £4bn it lent for TF to buy EMI because it could not be syndicated, and because the debt is on'cov-lite' terms it prevents Citi from taking over on a default. Link to article | cov lite default restructuring |
| 10/07/2009 | 14 The Times reported a UK company admitted to corruption and breaking UN sanctions. It bribed Iraqi officials to win trade contracts. The UN accused half of the 45K companies involved in Iraq, of paying kickbacks and surcharges in exchange for lucrative contracts. In 2007, the Times reported BA was fined £270m by the OFT and US DoJ for price fixing in collusion with Virgin Atlantic (who avoided prosecution by tipping off) Link to article Link to article | corruption operational risk price-fixing |
| 10/07/2009 | 13 The Times reported the Irish rate of inflation is -5.5%pa (its lowest since the Gt Depresssion), raising the real value of indebtedness but giving relief to mortgage and household costs. Link to article | deflation valuation |
| 09/07/2009 | 12 The NY Times reported the price of crude oil has dropped 16% in 6 days (its steepest fall in almost 3 years) revealing the market had been overly optimistic of the pace of recovery of the global economy after the global economic crisis (driving its price up 100% since year end). Prior to the crisis, strong oil demand and low supply had fuelled its rise. The current price is not expected to fall drastically though if OPEC controls its supply. Link to article | crude oil forecasting |
| 08/07/2009 | 11 The FT reported sub-prime lender, Cattles, will go into administration if creditors can't agree on their debt's relative priority of payment (and the courts will decide). Its defaulted bonds trade at 11.5p per £1 | default distressed debt |
| 07/07/2009 | 10a The FT reported that a survey of 500 small business FDs said their lack of currency risk knowledge had a negative impact on profits. 92% of companies were affected by GBP's volatility, and almost half of them said it had a significant impact. 40 and 45% of importers and exporters respectively did not actively manage their FX risk. | currency risk small business |
| 07/07/2009 | 10 The FT reported corporate bond issuance is expected to rise above pre-crisis levels as banks' higher capital adequacy charges reduce their lending capacity. Banks have also raised their lending charges and reduced the length of their loans (rarely over 5-7 yrs), further reducing their appeal. In contrast, energy company, EnBW, issued a 30-yr bond that was 6x over-subscribed (confirming investor appetite) | bond market bank debt capital adequacy |
| 07/07/2009 | 9 The FT reported the Indian govt has doubled import tax on gold & silver imports, as part of its budget measures. Prices are expected to rise accordingly. | import tax |
| 06/07/2009 | 8 The FT reported a secondary market in the State of California IOUs has started. They pay 3.75% pa (less than the State would pay if it funded itself in the money market), are transferable, and will be accepted as deposits by banks. | IOUs tradeable debt |
| 06/07/2009 | 7 The Times reported shares in internet company, Phorm, fell 30% after 'phone company, BT, pulled out of a contract with Phorm to supply web 'spy' software. On the 7 Jul, the Times reported Carphone Warehouse has pulled out because BT has and the shares had fallen 40%. Link to article Link to article | revenue share price |
| 05/07/2009 | 6 The Times reported returns on junk bonds (aka high yield debt) have been 'staggering' and the market is 'booming', however, it also points out that the rate of defaults has risen to 9% in the year ended May 09, and is expected to rise to 14% by Q4, versus just 1% in the year ended Dec 2007. Link to article | risk-return junk bonds |
| 03/07/2009 | 5 The Times reported shares in advertiser, WPP, fell 7% (making it the worst performing blue chip) on the back of an analyst's poor prospects for it, and illustrating the impact analysts have on investors. Link to article | revenue analysts' views |
| 03/07/2009 | 4 The Times reported retailer, JJB Sports, is seeking to raise equity for working capital. It said that "...a lack of stock was hampering its short-term ability to improve sales." It was saved from collapse when it agreed in March to sell is fitness clubs business. Link to article | working capital sales distressed sale |
| 02/07/2009 | 3 Breakingviews.com reported Sungard has extended the maturity of $2.5bn of its junk debt by 3 years, at a cost of an additional 1.9% interest pa, plus 0.25% fee. $460bn of US junk debt is to mature between 2011-14. Link to article | junk debt refinance risk |
| 01/07/2009 | 2 The Times reported shares in Yell fell 15% as it announced revenues in Q3 would be lower than expected. The drop in earnings would bring it close to breaching its covenants. Link to article | share value debt covenants |
| 01/07/2009 | 1 The FT reported that across the board, banks are raising their fees, spreads over LIBOR, and fees levied on unused borrowing facilities. This is in response to: lack of credit in the market, pressure on their own balance sheets, and credit risk. As an example, Lookers paid 10% over LIBOR on its refinanced debt, was obliged to suspend divs, and had controls put on Capex spending. Yell was forced to renegotiate its debt because its equity value and profitability were so bad (debt: £4.3bn vs equity £230m, and pre-tax loss of £1bn; its share price has fallen from £6 in 2007 to £0.27) so it could not raise more to repay its debt. | bank debt margin funding |